Firm Releases Catastrophe Model Based On Weather Prediction Technology

Applied Insurance Research (AIR), a Boston-based catastrophe modeling company, says it has released a new generation of European windstorm models based on what it describes as "sophisticated and computationally demanding Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) technology." NWP uses global environmental data to model atmospheric circulation patterns in three-dimensional space, the company notes.

AIR adds that NWP technology results in more realistic storm simulations than the current technology, which is based on parametric models.

``The implementation of this technology allows us to provide much more reliable loss information to our clients, both on a probabilistic basis and for actual events in real-time,'' said Karen Clark, AIR president and CEO.

Over two years of research and development effort have gone into the adaptation and implementation of NWP technology for modeling European windstorms. Dr. John Keller, senior meteorologist at AIR, notes that, ``The evolution of intense winter storms affecting Europe is determined by the complex non-linear interaction between the three-dimensional temperature and wind fields, and also by the amount of energy released from clouds and precipitation. By using the powerful physical equations that govern general atmospheric flow, we have developed a model capable of global climate and weather forecasting as well as real time catastrophe loss estimation.''

According to Paul Nunn, AIR's manager of London Operations, ``Being able to use this technology is truly a breakthrough for catastrophe modeling because it is one of the first commercial applications in leading edge atmospheric simulation.'' AIR will soon extend this technology to winter storms and freezing losses in North America."